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Of course, the blackjack dealer doesn’t always win, but many people feel the dealer wins a disproportionate number of times in blackjack. It’s a basic rule of the casino business that the house only offers games where it has an “edge”.
The house’s edge is baked into the game.
But the edge doesn’t guarantee the dealer will always win. Over the long run the dealer should only win slightly more often than a perfect player.
So what gives?
The old adage “perception is reality” works on one level because you play the game by how you perceive it. But on another level appearances can be deceiving. And sometimes the players themselves are responsible for the deceptive appearances.
Here are 7 reasons why the blackjack dealer always seems to win.
1 – Players May Not Understand Probabilities Well Enough
If you’re not trying to count cards, then you don’t even need to worry about the probabilities. Basic blackjack strategy takes all that into consideration.
In blackjack there are only two kinds of probabilities players should think about. The first and most well-known is the division between theoretical return to player and house edge.
Contrary to some players’ thinking, the house edge doesn’t predict how often the house wins. The house edge predicts how much money the house keeps. The assumption behind the house edge is wager-neutral.
Although the house needs to win a lot in blackjack to get ahead, the differences between payout odds and probabilities of card play create the edge. In any gambling game, if there is a statistical 50-50 chance of a certain outcome, the house will pay less than 1:1 on the odds.
The only other probability players need to care about is the probability that the next card they are dealt helps them. How many people are playing at your table doesn’t matter. What matters is what’s left in the shoe when it’s your turn for a card.
2 – The Number of Hands You Play per Hour Matters
If you’re playing head to head with the dealer, you can go through as many as 200 hands in an hour. If there are four other people at the table with you then each round takes longer. You’ll play fewer hands per hour.
Just using basic strategy against the house, you’ll lose money over time. The game is designed to pay slightly less than the true probabilities allow. So the more hands you play, the more likely the house will “win” your money away from you.
You should still win a lot of hands against the dealer. The house’s strategy is a long game. The more hands you play the more likely they’ll keep some or all of your money.
3 – Bad Game Play Provides the House with a “Hidden” Edge
The casino counts on most players making mistakes or bad calls. An inexperienced player makes a bad call. An experienced player who should know better makes a mistake.
Either way, if you hit or stand when you shouldn’t you make it more likely that the house wins.
If you split when you shouldn’t you make it more likely that the house wins. If you miss an opportunity to split it’s not so bad but you could win twice or more against the house on a favorable split.
Player strategy often enhances the house’s strategy. And whereas you decide your strategy on the fly the house is playing by a very simple rule book. House strategy never changes.
I imagine a guy dancing around a fight ring, trying to show off, while the dealer waits to whack him hard in the face. Your opponent isn’t going anywhere, trying to do flashy moves, or hiding anything. He’s just waiting for you to do something stupid.
With few exceptions players sometimes make it easy for the dealer by using the wrong strategy.
4 – The House Undermines Your Advantage Play
If you count cards the way most people advise you to, you’ll raise and lower your bets in a predictable fashion. This is like jumping up on the table, waving your arms, and shouting “hey, I’m counting cards!”
That strategy may have worked well in the 1960s but today’s casinos just shuffle the cards. All your counting is wasted time and energy.
This is why card counters like to work in teams. They can be more subtle, although the casinos still look for coordinated play.
Continuous shuffling machines may have ruined card counting forever. If not, the larger shoes and option to reshuffle on a whim make card counting a less rewarding strategy for most players.
If it seems like the house is winning more than you think they should, it could be you’re counting cards badly or needlessly.
5 – Are You Tipping the Dealer?
The dealer literally wins when you leave a tip. While this is considered a courteous habit and one I myself practice, it makes it all that much harder for you to get ahead.
I limit my tips to when I leave the table. I’ve seen some players split their winnings on big bets with the dealer. Assuming that’s completely legit, it still reduces the player’s winnings.
Whether you tip the dealer or not, the house is winning if you do tip the dealer. Those tips help casino employees pay their bills. I’ve seen some people argue against tipping because it “supports the system”.
I don’t think it’s fair to push casino employees into a moral quagmire. Either tip or don’t tip, but the tip costs you money. It does affect your win-loss ratio proportionate to how often and how much you tip.
6 – Is the Dealer Feeding You Bad Advice?
I’ve played a few tables where the dealers answered player questions. Blackjack dealers don’t have to be expert players. They only follow one strategy.
If you’ve got a friendly dealer who shares advice, he or she may be well-intentioned but that doesn’t mean they know the best strategy.
I’ve never questioned the integrity of a blackjack dealer. But they may push a progressive bet option. If you want a guaranteed way to improve the house edge in blackjack, go for the progressive wager on the side.
7 – Are You Using a Betting System?
Sooner or later someone sits down at the table with a betting system ready to go. Card counters raise their wagers when they believe the deck favors them but I’ve seen other betting systems.
One guy alternated his bets. He played $25 on one hand and $50 on the next. If he had played perfect strategy it shouldn’t have mattered.
When you talk betting strategies with people someone always brings up the Martingale System. The strategy is simple. Only make minimum wagers until you lose and then double your wager on the next bet to win back what you lost.
The Martingale System requires an endless supply of money, luck, or both. I’ve never met a great blackjack player who believed in a betting system. The best players I’ve sat next to had a set wager amount they always played and stuck to their games.
Conclusion
One of the most important things in gambling is to manage your expectations. The more you expect to win the greater your disappointment will be.
When people allow their expectations to get out of hand they try to make up for disappointment with risky bets. I’ve been one of those guys who got so frustrated he started making aggressive wagers.
When you stop caring about how well you’re playing you should walk away from the table. You can always go back later when you’re feeling better.
The only way the house doesn’t win is if you enjoy yourself and stay in budget. Dropping $200 at a casino is no different from buying $200 concert tickets.
If it’s all for fun and you enjoy yourself the house can’t take that away from you.
It’s mathematically impossible for either the house or the player to always win at the game of blackjack if both are playing a perfect game. It also comes down to how you interpret the phrase “always win.”
Is it possible to win every hand in blackjack without cheating? No, not even if the other player makes the worst choice on every hand (hitting on anything other than a 21). If both players draw 21, the push negates any win or loss.
By that reasoning alone, a cheater would have to control the deal to prevent the other player from ever drawing a blackjack.
For the sake of reasonable discussion, I’ll interpret “always win” to mean “leave the table with more money than you took in.” I still can’t offer any guarantees, but the following strategies improve your chances of always leaving the table a winner.
1 – Set a Hard Limit on Earnings
Although card counting doesn’t perform the magic people expect, as you become more experienced at counting cards you should see some improvement in your win/loss ratios. This is why, despite all the precautions they take, casinos still pay attention to card counters.
The basic idea in good gambling practice is to only risk losing money you don’t mind losing. If you really want to get ahead, then your thinking should become more conservative as you accumulate more money.
Rather than change your playing strategy, which is why you’re ahead, just call it quits before you’ve won too much.
How much is too much? If the pit boss is paying unusual attention to your table, that could be a sign you should take a break.
2 – Practice Every Chance You Get
Some of the best blackjack experts in the world say they ran through memory exercises for months before taking on the Vegas casinos.
You need to memorize two things to be successful in blackjack—the rules of the game (including table rules) and the best blackjack strategies for each card you’re dealt.
The basic rules of the game are easy to learn. Casinos add their own rules to limit players’ chances of success or to limit their winnings. The change from 3:2 payouts to 6:5 payouts is an example of how casinos are limiting winnings.
You need to react instinctively to the cards on the table. You need to know what you can do and what you should do in every situation.
You won’t get there by losing your money for months or years on end.
3 – Pick Your Tables Carefully
Because casinos have changed many of the old school blackjack rules, standard advice that people followed 10, 15, or 20 years ago doesn’t always apply any more. The old classic blackjack strategy books were great resources in their days, but the world has changed.
Choosing the best blackjack table may be easy. You could walk into a casino that still offers the basic game. You may have to visit a few casinos in your area to find the best game.
Because finding a good table is so hard, some players now prefer playing online blackjack games. They can choose from a variety of casinos, and because of the competition, online casinos offer a lot of different blackjack variations.
When you know the table rules you want to play by, they become part of your strategy as much as part of the house’s strategy.
4 – Bet in Consistent Patterns
Standard card counting technique says you should increase your bets when the deck is favorable. Because everyone shares this advice in books, video tutorials, and articles, it’s not a secret to the casinos.
Varying your bets when the cards are favorable may lead to the unfavorable reaction by the casino—they shuffle the cards.
Although many card counters still swear by the practice, they concede it’s much harder to win this way than in years past. The solo player is less likely to win much money over all than a team.
Instead of trying to win as much as a team wins, be more consistent in your betting. A little bit of subtlety in your patterns may give you the psychological boost you need to keep playing.
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How can you be consistent and subtle?
5 – Only Play When the Crowd Is Small
This is more a matter of personal preference. But having spent some time at the blackjack tables, I find it disruptive when people constantly come and go.
That is the exact reason why I stopped trying to count cards.
If you want to socialize, then chat away if the other players are willing to do that. But if your goal is to win, then treat the game like it’s your job. Do the work when you have the fewest distractions.
If you’re a regular high roller, you might be able to request a private table. And this is another reason why some people prefer to play online blackjack over a game in a casino. Whether it’s a live dealer table or a computer game, if you have the table to yourself, you can play without distractions.
6 – Ignore the Extras in the Game
You might be tempted to play a progressive blackjack game or to take insurance. I’ve done both, but in the long run, these game options just suck your money away from you.
The casino throws in extra options to make the game more interesting, but they’re also after your money.
Surrendering is a borderline practice. If you have the option of surrendering, some experts recommend you only do this when the cards are clearly against you.
Some casinos require late surrender, meaning you must wait for the dealer to check for a blackjack in her hand. Some games allow early surrender where you can forfeit based on the cards you see in your hand and the dealer’s face card.
Some surrender articles speak in terms of probabilities.
Your decision to surrender preserves capital. You should take into consideration what the face up cards show, what the table’s rule for dealer stands is (soft 17 or not), and the number of decks in the shoe (4 to 8).
Players usually surrender on a hard 16 if the dealer shows a 9, 10, or ace. They usually surrender on a hard 15 if the dealer shows a 10 or ace.
Some players criticize a player who surrenders. It’s your decision, not theirs.
Conclusion
As a player you want to enjoy what you’re doing even if you’re there to win. It’s hard to concentrate when you feel like every hand is against you. The psychological side of the game is important.
It’s just like going to work every morning, do you love your job or not?
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Unless you’re there as part of a team, you don’t have to keep playing if the game isn’t fun anymore. Choosing to play only when you have a good time builds your confidence.
Confidence doesn’t contribute directly to winning, but you’re more likely to trust your choices when you’re confident. Winning makes you confident but winning can be the result of random chance.
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Your job begins before you make the first bet. Study the rules, practice good strategy, and set a goal of achieving perfect play through instinct and experience.
Whether you count cards or not, the better you play the game, the more likely you’ll leave the table a winner.